Quarterly Pulse — Q1 2024

FINASENSE Research · June 14, 2024
Data: Q1 2024 Fed Funds: 5.33% · 10Y: 4.20% · 2Y: 4.59%
Where the industry stands as of 3/31/2024: The credit union system entered 2024 with a seasonal balance sheet expansion — assets grew 2.58% quarter-over-quarter to $2.33 trillion, fueled by a $50 billion deposit inflow — but lending activity nearly ground to a halt. Loan growth of 0.17% was the weakest in the dataset (rank 31/31), as higher rates suppressed demand across consumer and mortgage categories. The delinquency ratio (60+ days) dipped to 0.77% on seasonal Q1 curing, but the year-over-year trajectory — 0.77% vs. 0.52% in Q1 2023 — confirms the underlying deterioration remains intact. Annualized net charge-offs hit 0.80%, the highest in the dataset, though the Q1 ×4 annualization factor amplifies single-quarter loss activity. NIM ticked up to 3.00%, the first quarterly increase since Q3 2022, signaling the beginning of a margin recovery. The net worth ratio slipped 9 basis points (bps) to 9.04% as the 2.58% asset surge outpaced equity growth.

System at a Glance

Total Assets

$2,330.3B

Total Loans

$1,616.0B

Total Shares & Deposits

$1,954.2B

Net Income (Q1 YTD)

$3.8B

Net Worth Ratio

9.04%

ROAA (Ann.)

0.66%

Delinquency Ratio (60+)

0.77%

NCO Ratio (Ann.)

0.80%

Capital Adequacy

9.04%
System net worth ratio

204 bps above the 7.00% well-capitalized threshold; down 9 bps QoQ

Capital dips as the seasonal deposit surge expands the denominator: The system-wide net worth ratio fell to 9.04% as of 3/31/2024, down 9 bps from 9.12% at year-end 2023. The decline is mechanical, not distressing: total assets surged 2.58% on the seasonal Q1 deposit inflow ($50 billion in new shares), while equity grew at a slower pace ($2.8 billion, or 1.3%). When the denominator expands faster than the numerator, the ratio compresses. Year-over-year, the ratio is up 29 bps from 8.75% in Q1 2023 — the recovery from the 2022 investment-loss trough continues.

The over-$10B cohort carries the thinnest capital at 8.34%, the only cohort below 9.00% and the lowest reading in the system. Credit unions under $100M hold 12.41%. The gap between smallest and largest CUs (407 bps) reflects the structural difference in leverage and balance sheet complexity.

Loading...

Source: NCUA 5300 Call Report; FINASENSE analysis.

Loading...

Source: NCUA 5300 Call Report; FINASENSE analysis.


Asset Quality

0.77%
60+ day delinquency ratio

Down 5 bps QoQ on seasonal curing — but up 25 bps YoY

Seasonal curing masks the year-over-year deterioration: The 60+ day delinquency ratio dropped to 0.77% in Q1 2024, down 5 bps from the 0.83% year-end 2023 reading. The Q1 dip is a well-understood seasonal pattern: tax refund receipts cure early-stage delinquencies, and year-end charge-off activity removes the most impaired balances from the delinquent pool. But the year-over-year picture cuts through the seasonality — 0.77% in Q1 2024 vs. 0.52% in Q1 2023, a 25 bps increase that confirms the underlying credit deterioration remains intact. Each Q1 seasonal trough is resetting to a higher floor.

The over-$10B cohort leads delinquency at 1.18%, sitting 41 bps above the system average. Annualized reached 0.80% — the highest in the dataset — though the Q1 ×4 annualization factor inflates this reading. The over-$10B cohort's annualized NCO of 1.44% is particularly elevated; this single-quarter spike reflects concentrated charge-off activity at year-start (institutions often batch write-downs in January–March) and should be confirmed by Q2 data before drawing structural conclusions.

The NCO ratio has now risen for nine consecutive quarters — the longest sustained increase in the dataset — climbing from 0.25% in Q4 2021 to 0.80%.

Loading...

Source: NCUA 5300 Call Report; FINASENSE analysis.

Loading...

Source: NCUA 5300 Call Report; FINASENSE analysis.


Earnings

3.00%
Net interest margin (annualized)

First quarterly increase since Q3 2022 — up 3 bps from the 2.97% trough

The margin inflection point: Annualized NIM reached 3.00% in Q1 2024, up 3 bps from the 2.97% trough in Q4 2023. This is the first quarterly NIM increase since Q3 2022, and it marks a potential inflection point after six consecutive quarters of compression. Asset yields are repricing higher on the loan book as originations at elevated market rates replace older, lower-yielding vintage loans — while the pace of deposit cost increases has decelerated.

ROAA fell to 0.66% annualized, continuing a five-quarter decline from the 0.81% reading in Q1 2023. The Q1 ×4 annualization factor amplifies both the NIM figure and the ROAA figure — a single weak quarter is projected as if it were the full year. Q1 net income of $3.8 billion trails the $4.5 billion reported in Q1 2023 by 15.6%.

The over-$10B cohort leads on ROAA at 0.71% (annualized), while the $500M–$1B tier lags at 0.48%. The $1B–$10B tier's NIM of 2.78% is the lowest in the system — 22 bps below the system average — reflecting competitive pressure on loan pricing in this segment.

Loading...

Source: NCUA 5300 Call Report; FINASENSE analysis.

Loading...

Source: NCUA 5300 Call Report; FINASENSE analysis.


Loan Growth & Composition

0.17%
System loan growth, Q1 2024

Weakest in the dataset (rank 31/31) — demand suppressed by higher rates

Lending stalls as the rate environment chills demand: System loans grew just 0.17% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2024 — the weakest quarterly loan growth in the dataset. The near-stall was broad-based: three of five cohorts posted outright declines. Credit unions under $100M contracted by 0.55%, the $100M–$500M tier by 0.25%, and the $500M–$1B tier by 0.42%. Only the $1B–$10B (+0.38%) and over-$10B (+0.20%) cohorts posted positive growth, and even those readings are anemic by historical standards.

Q1 loan growth is seasonally weak — mortgage and auto origination volumes dip in winter — but the 0.17% reading is well below the Q1 2023 figure of 1.74% and the Q1 2022 figure of 3.75%. The combination of elevated borrowing rates (suppressing mortgage refinance and auto demand) and tightening underwriting standards (reflecting the delinquency trajectory) has compressed origination volumes.

The loans-to-assets ratio fell sharply to 69.35%, down 166 bps from 71.01% at year-end. This reflects the denominator effect of the $50 billion seasonal deposit inflow: assets surged while loans barely moved, mechanically compressing the ratio. The Q1 drop will likely reverse through Q2–Q3 as deposit balances normalize.

Loading...

Source: NCUA 5300 Call Report; FINASENSE analysis.

Loading...

Source: NCUA 5300 Call Report; FINASENSE analysis.


Liquidity

69.35%
System loans-to-assets ratio

Down 166 bps QoQ as the seasonal deposit wave reshapes the balance sheet

The Q1 deposit surge eases liquidity pressure — temporarily: Shares and deposits grew 3.13% QoQ to $1.95 trillion — a $50 billion inflow reflecting the typical Q1 pattern of tax refund deposits and seasonal savings accumulation. The deposit wave pushed total assets up 2.58% and mechanically compressed the loans-to-assets ratio to 69.35%. Borrowings edged down to $132.8 billion from $137.1 billion at year-end, but remain elevated at $28.6 billion above the year-ago level of $104.2 billion — a reminder that the wholesale funding taken on during the 2023 deposit drought has not yet been materially unwound.

The Q1 liquidity improvement is seasonal and will partially reverse through Q2–Q3 as consumers draw down tax-refund balances and the deposit base normalizes. The structural question is whether institutions will use the temporary breathing room to begin retiring wholesale borrowings — a trend that would materialize in Q3–Q4 2024 with the $40 billion borrowing reduction documented in subsequent quarters.

The over-$10B cohort's loans-to-assets ratio of 70.75% and the $1B–$10B tier at 70.87% remain near the top of their historical ranges, indicating that even with the seasonal deposit inflow, the largest institutions are operating with limited liquidity slack.

Loading...

Source: NCUA 5300 Call Report; FINASENSE analysis.


Standardized Data Table — Q1 2024

Key CAMELS-aligned metrics by asset-size cohort for the quarter ending March 31, 2024. Income-based ratios annualized from single-quarter YTD figures (×4). Growth rates are single-quarter (QoQ).

Standardized Data Table — CAMELS Metrics by Asset-Size Cohort, Q1 2024

No Results

Notable Moves This Quarter

  • Pressure: Loan growth hits a dataset low — System loans grew just 0.17% QoQ (rank 31/31), the weakest in the dataset. Three of five cohorts contracted. Higher rates are suppressing demand across consumer and mortgage categories.
  • Watch: NCO ratio reaches a dataset high — Annualized net charge-offs hit 0.80%, the highest in the dataset and the ninth consecutive quarterly increase. The Q1 ×4 annualization factor inflates this reading — Q2 will confirm whether the pace is sustained.
  • Watch: Delinquency dips seasonally, but the floor keeps rising — The 60+ day ratio fell to 0.77% from 0.83%, but year-over-year it's up 25 bps from Q1 2023's 0.52%. Each seasonal trough is higher than the last.
  • Favorable: NIM inflection — Net interest margin rose 3 bps to 3.00% — the first quarterly increase since Q3 2022, ending a six-quarter compression streak. Asset repricing is beginning to outpace deposit cost growth.
  • Watch: Seasonal deposit surge reshapes the balance sheet — Shares grew 3.13% ($50B inflow), driving asset growth of 2.58% and compressing the loans-to-assets ratio by 166 bps to 69.35%. Borrowings remain elevated at $132.8B.

This report is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, regulatory, or examination advice, nor should it be relied upon as the basis for any decision.
FINASENSE is not affiliated with the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). Financial data is sourced from NCUA 5300 Call Report filings as submitted by individual credit unions and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Ratio definitions and account classifications reference the NCUA Financial Performance Report (FPR) Chart of Accounts. All aggregation, analysis, and derived metrics are independently computed by FINASENSE and may differ from NCUA-published figures. Interpretations reflect the views of FINASENSE and not those of the NCUA.
This report does not consider the specific circumstances of any individual credit union and is not tailored advice. FINASENSE has no financial relationship with, and receives no compensation from, any institution referenced.
All information is provided "as is," without warranty of any kind, and FINASENSE disclaims liability for any decisions made in reliance on this report. Historical metrics are not indicative of future financial condition. This report is proprietary to FINASENSE, a publication of IP Foundries, LLC (Arizona), and may not be reproduced, distributed, or reused without prior written consent.