System Signals
System Signals
Quarterly flagship — 3–5 named signals that define what matters, what changed, and what to watch next.
System Signals — Q1 2026
The structural delinquency ratchet the Q4 report flagged is now confirmed. A seasonal deposit inflow met stalled loan demand, rebuilding liquidity. And margins hit a fresh high even as the smallest credit unions earned almost nothing.
System Signals — Q4 2025
Three signals define the quarter. Delinquency breaches 1% for the first time. NIM expansion slows to a crawl. And earnings hold up as the margin outruns provisioning — the credit bill is deferred, not yet paid.
System Signals — Q3 2025
Delinquency reaches 0.95%, one quarter from breaching 1%. NIM's recovery stalls near its high — but earnings keep improving as the margin outruns provisioning.
System Signals — Q2 2025
Delinquency rebounds past the seasonal dip with the floor still rising. Loan growth reaccelerates while deposits flatten — the funding gap that closed in Q1 reopens.
System Signals — Q1 2025
Seasonal deposit surge masks a credit floor that has stopped falling. NIM recovery enters its fifth quarter, but ROAA stalls as provisioning absorbs the margin gain.