Under the Surface
Under the Surface
The mechanisms behind the headline numbers — why something is happening, how the pieces connect, and what the standard metrics don't show. Each article supports or challenges the thesis in the latest System Signals.
The Interchange You Can't See
Interchange income is suddenly a regulatory battleground, but the 5300 Call Report never reports it on its own line — it hides inside Other Operating Income. Here is what the data can and cannot show: a five-year compression in non-interest income, two revenue models split by size, and why debit, not credit, is the real engine.
The Cohort Earnings Divergence — Q1 2026
The smallest credit unions earn the system's best margins and take the fewest credit losses — and still barely break even. The gap is scale, and a shrinking loan book is closing the one door out.
The Provision Lag — Q4 2025
Delinquency crossed 1% in Q4 while charge-offs and provisioning stayed flat. The widening gap is not inflating today's earnings — it is deferring credit cost into 2026.
The Size Divide — Q3 2025
The over-10-billion-dollar cohort is at once the most profitable and the most delinquent tier in the system — an inversion that has widened through the current credit cycle and concentrates risk exactly where the Share Insurance Fund is most exposed.
The Funding Gap — Q2 2025
Loan growth outpaced deposit growth nearly nine to one in Q2, reopening the funding gap that Q1's seasonal surge had closed — and forcing the first uptick in wholesale borrowings in over a year.